Stronger Monsoon : A Bigger Threat

Global warming is the cause of heavy rains in recent years resulting in a higher rate of evaporation and alteration of rainfall patterns, said weather experts.

An unprecedented 568 millimetres (22.3 inches) of downpour has been recorded so far in Karachi since the start of the monsoon season. According to Pakistan Meteorological Department, it is four times higher in the last two decades.

Weather analyst JM said that in past decades, the powerhouse of monsoon used to be the Bay of Bengal, which used to get weakened as it approached Karachi. “The monsoon system is now re-intensifying over the Arabian Sea due to the rising temperatures,” M said. He was of the view that the surface temperatures over the Arabian Sea have increased by two degrees centigrade in the last two decades. “Warming of the sea is not limited to the top layers and the lower zones are also feeling the heat,” he explained.

According to M, the unusual rise in temperature of the Arabian Sea caused the low-pressure systems of monsoon, coming from Rajasthan and Gujarat, to react and gather strength before striking Karachi. From the Arabian Sea, the moisture went over northwest India, became energised because of heat, and travelled to Pakistan forming dense clouds.

 

“You can gauge its strength from the fact that it hit Saudi Arabia, Oman and UAE after affecting Pakistan although monsoon never harmed those countries in the past.” After absorbing moisture from the Arabian Sea, the system maintained its strength and moved forward with the wind. “As long as the system receives moisture, it will continue to rain,” he added.

Dr Hassan Abbas, a Water Resource Expert, discussing the causes of heavy spells of rain and climate adaptation said that the atmosphere is like a superhighway in the sky that shifts water above the earth. According to Abbas, we neither have any control over it nor can we change the direction of the wind. No country alone can do anything about global warming unless a collective effort is made without it that there would be more rains and floods in future. “The current situation is the result of the tampering we have done with the environment. The water cycle is broken. By building big dams, water is not filling the rivers and is not allowed to reach underground. There is a feeling that the river water levels have slumped as we do not allow the water to pass through its channels,” he apprised.

Dr Abbas stressed that the rains could not be controlled but the damage could be avoided. There are active flood plains along the river and whenever there is urban flooding due to rains, water flows out of the river into the floodplain.

Highlighting Floodplain Management he said, “We must provide an alternative to people inhabiting the floodplain. This is how the water would spread around and will have a chance to flow and go into the soil. This has the advantage that the groundwater is replenished. And that way, the level of underground water will gradually go up.”

Dr Hassan Abbas urged the need to open underground water channels. Scientific intervention is also possible where concrete covers cannot be reduced. Water should be channelised underground through recharge wells and a water absorption system should be installed in the middle of the drains. “When there is drought, the underground water will benefit you. We need it to fill the lakes and streams, which are sources of drinking water and crop irrigation,” he added.

Tofiq Pasha belongs to Hisaar Foundation which works for water and food security. He stated that the government has failed to mitigate climate change effects. “Unfortunately, the state has not paid any attention to climate change and its effects on time. For so many years, the people sitting in the assemblies do not have time for this. They may have plans but nothing on the ground.”

 

The UN says Pakistan’s population will be over 380 million by 2050 and may see a sharp drop in resources. “How are we going to feed them?” asked Pasha.  According to the National Disaster Management Authority, over 300 people died as a result of the heavy monsoon rains this year. The downpour has also washed away more than 600 kilometres of roads and 50 bridges in the country.

 

The rain system re-intensifying over Arabian Sea due to rising temperature.