PAKISTAN WEATHER OUTLOOK:
=== STRONG MONSOON SPELL ===
TIME PERIOD: 28th July to 31st July 2024
🔷 SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS: The Well Marked Low Pressure System over Central India has been Downgraded to a Strong Low Pressure System and is Moving West Towards Indian Gujrat and Sindh, Pakistan Regions. A Circulation has formed Over North Arabian Near Kutch. Both Weather Systems are Likely to form Nexus which will Eventually Strengthen the Monsoon Currents across Pakistan and Specially over Southern Pakistan Areas. Under these Circumstances Following are the weather Forecast across Pakistan:
🔴 SRINAGAR JAMMU & #KASHMIR:
Rain / Thunderstorms at times Very Heavy Rainfall expected in this region of Pakistan accompanied with Windstorms and Hailstorms. Watch for Travel Disruptions Due to Land Slides / flash Flooding Road Blockages. Damage to Crops and livestock Expected Due to Windstorm and Hailstorm.
🔴 #KPK, G.B & AZAD KAHSMIR:
Rain / Thunderstorms at times Very Heavy Rainfall accompanied with Windstorm and Hailstorm is expected in Different areas of this region. Dir, Swat, Buner, Kohistan, Shangla, Mansehra, Abbottabad, Haripur, Mardan, Swabi, Charsadda, Nowshera, Peshawar, Waziristan, Kurrum, Bannu, Kohat, Lakki Marwat, Tank, Karak and Dera Ismail Khan, Gilgit-Baltistan (Ghizer, Astore, Diamer, Skardu, Gilgit, Hunza Nagar, Ghanche and Kharmang. Damage to Crops and livestock Expected Due to Hailstorm and Windstorm Events. #Watch for Travel Disruption Due to Landslides and Occasional Flash Flooding. Possible Urban Flooding in Low Lying Areas and Major Cities.
🔴#BALOCHISTAN:
Rain / Thunderstorms can occur in Different areas of Sheranai, Musa Khel, Zhob, Qilla Abdullah, Qilla Saifullah, Pishin, Quetta, Ziarat, Koh E Suleiman, Kirthar Range, Pasni, Ormara, Bela, Uthal, Somiani, Gadani, Hub and adjoining Areas. #Watch for Travel Disruption Due to Occasional Flash Flooding. Possible Urban Flooding in Low Lying Areas.
🔴 #PUNJAB:
Rain / Thunderstorms at times Very Heavy Rainfall expected in this region accompanied with Windstorms Watch for Travel Disruptions Due to Road Blockages Caused by Temporary Urban Flooding. Damage to Crops and livestock Expected Due to Windstorm. (Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Murree, Bhurban, Galiyat, Wah Cantt, Taxila, Khariyan, Potohar Regions, Faisalabad, Sialkot, Sargodha, Gujranwala, Mainwali, Sheikhurpura, Jhang, Nankana Sahib, Attock, Jhelum , Multan, Vehari, Rahimy ar Khan, and Many other Adjoining areas. Possible Urban Flooding in Low Lying Areas.
🔴 #SINDH:
Rain / Thunderstorms at times Very Heavy Rain Expected in Most Parts of Sindh. Tharparkar, Nagarparkar, Islamkot, Mithi, Umerkot, Badin District, Thatta, Sujhawal, Jamshoro, Keti Bander, Nooriabaad, Hyderabad, Mirpurkhas, Sanghar, Tando Allahyar, Tandoadam, Sukker, Larkana, Jacobabad, Nawabshah and Many other Adjoining Areas. Possible Urban Flooding in Low Lying Areas. Few Areas Can Easily Cross 100mm Mark During the Whole 3 to 4 days Spell.
🔴 #Karachi: (Specially Mentioned): As an Early effects Temperature and Feels Like Temperatures will start rising little bit from 28th july as Sea Breeze will Start getting Slowed Down. Major Rain Spell in Karachi is from 29th to 31st July where Developments will start from afternoon followed by Moderate to few Heavy Rainfall events in Most areas of the City. Few Short but Very Heavy Rain events Cannot be Ruled out at Western and Southern Parts of the City (Chances upto 30-40%). An estimated 30-50 mm Rains can occur in most parts of the City while Few areas can also Reach up to 50-80 mm Rain (During the whole 3 to 4 days Spell overall). We shall be Updating Regarding Rains Intensity and Cloud Development Time frame on Daily Basis In shah ALLAH.
🟣 POSSIBLE SCENARIO: As per Latest Analysis there are some Projections that if the Circulation over Arabian Sea Intensifies to an MTC LEVEL then the Low Pressure can Possibly Merge over Arabian sea and system Core may Move Towards Balochistan Coast or Oman Passing Very Close to Karachi. As a Result Rain Intensity over Coastal areas including Karachi will increase. Also Due to PULL EFFECTS Rains Can go upto 3rd to 4th August 2024 with Occasional Gaps. Chances of this Scenario Happening are upto 65% as per our Analysis. We shall be closely Monitoring this merger and will keep you all Updated Timely In Shah ALLAH.
IMPORTANT EVENTS:
◾Heavy to Very Heavy Rain Events Can Cause Travel Disruption in Northern Areas.
◾ Urban Flooding is Possible in Major and Small Cities Across Pakistan.
◾ Windstorm and Lightning Type Conditions May Cause Damages to Solar Panels, Tube Wells, Crops, Live Stock and Crops.
◾ Rainfall Estimates (mm) are Mentioned Average after the Whole 3 to 4 days. Some Areas can See Lower Readings while Some areas can see Higher Readings as well.
✨ INDEED ONLY ALLAH KNOWS AND COMMANDS ALL
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